Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd0c…b5e3 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%16W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$14
politics 25% −$10
sports 14% −$50
crypto 6% −$1
economics 6% −$1
tech 4% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 87 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 130 -1.5% -10.9% 12% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.4% 4% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.3%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses16 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)130 / 130
History coverage131d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 130 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $290 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $202 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $209 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $187 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $191 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $200 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $180 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $362 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $190 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $214 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $154 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $399 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $177 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $169 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $169 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $605 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $412 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $433 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $492 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $244 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $191 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 16d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 20d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $202 22d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $202 23d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $209 24d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $209 25d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $253 26d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 26d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 26d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 27d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 27d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $191 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $200 29d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $200 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 29d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 30d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 31d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 31d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 32d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $179 33d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $179 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $199 33d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $199 33d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $232 34d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $232 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records