Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:56:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd0e…9884 sports 22 markets active 4h ago coverage 5d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,337 (+1%) realized +$2,337 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,723per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$2,372est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$28,136
other 23% +$2,187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 50% +4.8%
≤30d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 50% +4.8%
≤90d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 50% +4.8%
all 22 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 50% +4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 50% +4.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 50% -5.2%
15% -26.7% 50% -14.3%
20% -33.9% 41% -22.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$10,491) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -30% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7,909 vs −$6,459 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,337
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,372
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8,723
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $18,709 +$278 +2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20,270 +$16,094 +79%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10,177 +$14,213 +140%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $10,639 −$10,491 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10,141 −$10,000 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30,387 +$22,245 +73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10,186 +$5,237 +51%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13,651 +$8,074 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10,161 +$11,365 +112%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10,178 −$10,000 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,132 −$10,000 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11,185 −$11,000 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10,183 +$15,458 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10,131 −$10,000 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 +$148 +49%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $305 +$374 +123%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 53¢ $10,142 3h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 50¢ $8,567 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10,135 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10,135 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $10,177 8h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 53¢ $10,141 9h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 54¢ $498 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $10,141 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10,129 35h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20,258 35h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $15,423 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10,186 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $1,015 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $397 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10,161 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $9,577 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $11,751 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $13,651 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10,178 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $10,132 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $1,010 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,017 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10,168 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10,131 4d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 39¢ $10,183 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 41¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records