Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:26:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd0f…3656 sports 126 markets active 3d ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$73 (+5%) realized +$74 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%64W / 61L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$22
14 days+$26
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$33
other 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +13.0% +2.3% 64% 64% +15.9%
≤30d 23 -8.3% -17.1% 48% 48% -1.0%
≤90d 53 -14.8% -22.9% 49% 45% -9.3%
all 125 +0.3% -9.3% 51% 46% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 46% -5.2%
10% -18.0% 41% -14.2%
15% -25.9% 38% -22.5%
20% -33.2% 34% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses64 / 61
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage243d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $9 +$9 +101%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $36 +$7 +19%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +85%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +78%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -71%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$4 +78%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$3 +24%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$5 +101%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$3 +66%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 30 $15 −$1 -7%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $10 +$6 +63%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 4 Winner May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $10 +$5 +45%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $7 $0 -5%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Brooklyn Nets receive the second overall pick at the 2026 NBA Dra May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Indiana Pacers receive the first overall pick at the 2026 NBA Dra May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $6 +$4 +60%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $4 +$3 +67%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $4 +$1 +12%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 08 $2 $0 -21%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $15 +$3 +22%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $40 −$37 -91%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $5 $0 +8%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $7 +$3 +50%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $30 −$3 -9%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $4 +$1 +37%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $110 −$20 -18%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Apr 20 $1 $0 -14%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $10 +$1 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 16 $3 +$2 +78%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $5 +$4 +84%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Apr 13 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 05 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $95 +$15 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 94¢ $8 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 62¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 60¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 34¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 25¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 18¢ $3 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $6 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $7 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Team WE 48¢ $3 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 40¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 99¢ $3 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 48¢ $2 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team WE 48¢ $4 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team WE 32¢ $5 3d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 31¢ $5 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $1 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster 11¢ $1 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $3 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $9 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $5 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 24¢ $3 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 70¢ $5 4d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $3 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 36¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 88¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 85¢ $9 6d
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.32 · official $39.32 (match) · 264 history records