Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:57:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd12…7f29 weather 480 markets active 0h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$229 (+1%) realized +$212 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate60%283W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day40.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$226now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$16
14 days−$89
30 days+$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$89
other 2% −$32
sports 1% +$12
politics 0% +$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -1.0% -10.4% 68% 22% -8.2%
≤30d 183 +6.9% -3.3% 65% 28% -7.3%
≤90d 472 +8.1% -2.2% 60% 23% -9.5%
all 472 +8.1% -2.2% 60% 23% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.2% 23% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -11.5% 15% -18.1%
15% -20.1% 12% -26.0%
20% -27.9% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$226
Realized+$212
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses283 / 189
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)472 / 480
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day40.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 472 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 84¢ 90¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+8%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+8%)
China coup attempt before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+3%)
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-1%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $17 $18 +$2 (+9%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? No 73¢ 84¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+28%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Yes 25¢ 72¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+186%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 24 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 23? Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 +$53 +207%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? Jun 22 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $21 −$10 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $77 −$43 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $18 −$5 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 21 $74 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $13 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $15 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 −$5 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $75 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $34 +$6 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $31 +$9 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 19? Jun 19 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$20 +234%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $33 −$18 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $81 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$3 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$6 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $22 −$2 -8%
England vs. Croatia: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 −$8 -93%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 +$24 +276%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$23 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -77%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -73%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? SELL Yes 67¢ $13 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? SELL Yes 60¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 94¢ $79 23h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $11 25h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $20 36h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 32¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? SELL Yes 22¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 65¢ $8 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 65¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 22? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $225.79 · official $225.79 (match) · 3500 history records