Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd14…f20d crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate79%87W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$85
14 days−$87
30 days−$312
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 45% −$120
crypto 23% +$118
other 17% −$114
tech 10% −$52
sports 6% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.3% -25.2% 73% 64% -21.9%
≤30d 62 -7.0% -15.9% 76% 60% -14.9%
≤90d 110 -1.5% -10.9% 79% 63% -10.7%
all 110 -1.5% -10.9% 79% 63% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 63% -10.7%
10% -19.4% 29% -19.2%
15% -27.2% 9% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 2% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$51 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$172
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses87 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage40d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? No 85¢ 88¢ $102 $105 +$3 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? Up 75¢ 100¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 +$6 +11%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$24 +23%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $52 +$8 +16%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$6 +11%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $54 +$6 +12%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 12? Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +13%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $55 +$10 +18%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? Jun 09 $50 +$6 +11%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $51 +$12 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$7 +13%
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$6 +11%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $50 +$5 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $211 +$53 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $51 +$19 +37%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 5? Jun 05 $50 +$5 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 5? Jun 05 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $51 +$2 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$16 +16%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$11 +11%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $101 +$11 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $50 +$13 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $50 +$6 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $101 +$24 +24%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $120 +$22 +18%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $50 −$50 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $101 +$25 +25%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 29? May 30 $48 +$16 +34%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? May 30 $50 +$14 +29%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? May 30 $101 +$18 +18%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $52 −$52 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $101 −$100 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $152 −$21 -14%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 in May? May 28 $100 $0 -0%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $101 +$35 +35%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $53 +$12 +22%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $50 +$16 +32%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $48 +$7 +13%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 26? May 25 $201 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 24? May 24 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $136 +$44 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 21 $101 +$7 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 75¢ $50 10h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 73¢ $52 26h
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $50 26h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $28 26h
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 90¢ $23 26h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $215 on June 15? BUY No 95¢ $100 2d
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 90¢ $52 5d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 89¢ $54 5d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $295 on June 11? BUY No 82¢ $51 6d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $355 on June 12? BUY No 84¢ $50 6d
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on June 11? BUY No 74¢ $51 6d
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 Week of June 8 2026? BUY No 86¢ $52 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 84¢ $55 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 88¢ $4 7d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 80¢ $19 8d
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 80¢ $32 8d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 9? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 8d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 90¢ $45 9d
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 90¢ $6 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 90¢ $50 9d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 88¢ $17 9d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 88¢ $34 9d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 87¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 92¢ $160 10d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 5? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 5? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 12d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on June 5? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $171.63 · official $171.63 (match) · 284 history records