Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd14…2267
sports · 604 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$9,008 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$36,543 · open −$996
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,777
Realized−$36,543
Unrealized−$996
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses205 / 552
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$2,941
Open positions12
Markets (closed)757 / 604
History coverage19d
Avg bet$239
Trades / day157.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 12 History 757 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18,385
7 days−$24,777
14 days−$34,609
30 days−$36,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 45¢ 32¢ $1,370 $979 −$391 (-29%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $890 $752 −$138 (-16%)
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Galions 56¢ 100¢ $156 $278 +$122 (+78%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $250 $241 −$9 (-3%)
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Team Liquid 45¢ 46¢ $176 $181 +$6 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Ursa 24¢ 18¢ $175 $135 −$40 (-23%)
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Metizport 45¢ 24¢ $200 $107 −$93 (-47%)
Will JD Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $113 $87 −$26 (-23%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? No 21¢ 36¢ $9 $14 +$6 (+69%)
Will LNG Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 24¢ 0¢ $256 $1 −$255 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 42¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 18¢ 0¢ $400 $0 −$400 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Stage RUSTEC 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Misa Esports (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Bushido Wildcats 53¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 51¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #1 Playoffs Just Players 37¢ 0¢ $222 $0 −$222 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Group D GenOne 43¢ 0¢ $217 $0 −$217 (-100%)
Will MIBR win CS Asia Championships 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner The Last Resort 55¢ 0¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Ninjas in Pyjamas 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs Galorys 49¢ 0¢ $201 $0 −$201 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Falcons Force (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season Falcons Force 29¢ 0¢ $91 $0 −$91 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Phantom 51¢ 0¢ $252 $0 −$252 (-100%)
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs NRG 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Bushido Wildcats vs Misa Esports (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MIBR win CS Asia Championships 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $173 −$173 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $0 −$15 -3894%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Falcons Force (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Phantom (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Jun 14 $252 −$252 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 14 $253 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Fisher College (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $171 −$171 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Fake do Biru - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoff Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stag Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs 1WIN (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series P Jun 14 $183 −$183 -100%
Map Handicap: URSA (-1.5) vs HAVU (+1.5) Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs HAVU (BO1) - BC Game Masters C Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs Jun 14 $226 −$226 -100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Sto Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs HEROIC Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOS (BO3) - CBLOL Regular Season Jun 14 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Seri Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs FURIA Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 14 $188 −$188 -100%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur Jun 14 $201 −$201 -100%
Counter-Strike: SINQU vs B8 Academy (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regul Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: TNC vs Misa Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - CCT Europ Jun 14 $165 −$165 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $211 −$211 -100%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Maste Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Master Jun 14 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 14 $253 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs OG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Cha Jun 14 $202 −$202 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Fisher College (+1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$14,728
other 1% −$829
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs BUY Metizport 45¢ $203 11m
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner SELL Metizport 40¢ $53 27m
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner SELL Metizport 40¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner SELL Metizport 40¢ $60 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner SELL Metizport 40¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner SELL Metizport 40¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 8¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 8¢ $38 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner BUY Metizport 41¢ $254 1h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 24¢ $179 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 42¢ $178 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 45¢ $176 2h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 37¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 11¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY ex-RUBY 46¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY ex-RUBY 46¢ $37 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $56 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $67 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $14 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $25 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $9 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 25¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BetBoom Team 21¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 -49.7% -54.5% 17% 17% -51.3%
≤30d 757 -24.6% -31.8% 27% 27% -30.3%
≤90d 757 -24.6% -31.8% 27% 27% -30.3%
all 757 -24.6% -31.8% 27% 27% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.8% 27% -30.3%
10% ← realistic here -38.3% 26% -37.0%
15% -44.3% 26% -43.1%
20% -49.8% 26% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,776.89 · official $2,776.99 (match) · 3500 history records