Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd16…2c91 crypto 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d only
✗ bot/MM pace (361 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,949 (-98%) realized −$4,949 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%75W / 157L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day360.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,846
7 days−$3,820
14 days−$4,270
30 days−$4,270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$391
other 2% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (361 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-40.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 175 -41.3% -46.9% 30% 29% -71.1%
≤30d 232 -33.9% -40.2% 32% 30% -53.8%
≤90d 232 -33.9% -40.2% 32% 30% -53.8%
all 232 -33.9% -40.2% 32% 30% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover360.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.2% 30% -53.8%
10% ← realistic here -45.9% 28% -58.2%
15% -51.1% 26% -62.3%
20% -55.9% 23% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
18.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$36 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$4,949
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses75 / 157
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 155
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day360.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 48¢ 48¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 135 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $35 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $122 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.10 · official $19.10 (match) · 3500 history records