Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd17…8f28 other 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 228L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$37
sports 24% −$19
politics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$5
economics 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage128d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $409 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $627 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $273 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $295 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $433 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $445 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $183 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $313 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $505 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $273 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $279 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $697 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $260 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $127 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $142 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $180 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $254 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $207 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $430 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $320 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $217 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $402 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 03 $282 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 4h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 6h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 8h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 15h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 17h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 18h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 20h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 21h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 27h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 28h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 30h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 31h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 34h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 35h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 37h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 39h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $51 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $51 41h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $2 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $49 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.44 · official $50.44 (match) · 1298 history records