Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd17…d3ab sports 53 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$285 (-27%) realized −$285 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%21W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days−$303
14 days−$250
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$220
sports 40% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -34.1% -40.4% 34% 34% -42.1%
≤30d 53 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 40% -31.2%
≤90d 53 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 40% -31.2%
all 53 -17.5% -25.4% 40% 40% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 40% -31.2%
10% -32.5% 38% -37.8%
15% -39.1% 32% -43.8%
20% -45.0% 25% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$18 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$285
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses21 / 32
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage8d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -63%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 +$2 +86%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi Jun 20 $15 +$42 +276%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$44 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $8 +$4 +48%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $8 +$3 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$37 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +27%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$14 +91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$2 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$35 +344%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $39 +$6 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$26 +197%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 53¢ $2 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $15 17h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Wi BUY 26¢ $15 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $1 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $10 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $20 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 42h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $3 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $41 45h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $8 46h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $8 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $121 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $10 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $10 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $20 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records