Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd17…c8f4 sports 190 markets active 4d ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$61 (+2%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate55%105W / 85L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$29
sports 37% +$59
other 11% −$20
world 1% $0
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.7% -23.8% 15% 15% -16.0%
≤30d 20 -15.7% -23.8% 15% 15% -16.0%
≤90d 20 -15.7% -23.8% 15% 15% -16.0%
all 190 -5.5% -14.5% 55% 34% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 34% -7.9%
10% -22.7% 25% -16.7%
15% -30.2% 21% -24.7%
20% -37.0% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses105 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)190 / 190
History coverage568d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 190 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $12 $0 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $14 $0 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $14 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -5%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 14 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 14 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 14 $23 −$1 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -4%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$4 +59%
Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 21 $10 +$4 +45%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Feb 21 $14 $0 -3%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $9 +$1 +9%
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) Feb 21 $10 $0 -3%
Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $9 $0 -5%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $7 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $6 $0 +0%
Mantova 1911 vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $6 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $5 $0 -2%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-28? Feb 21 $5 $0 -3%
Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $10 −$6 -56%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? Feb 21 $18 $0 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $5 −$4 -81%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-02-22? Feb 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Feb 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-21? Feb 20 $5 $0 -0%
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffs Feb 20 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Feb 20 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Rio Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Vilius Gaubas Feb 20 $5 $0 +1%
Mensik vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw? Feb 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Delray Beach Open: Zachary Svajda vs Frances Tiafoe Feb 20 $5 +$3 +52%
KF Shkëndija 79 vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Rio Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Jaime Faria Feb 20 $15 +$3 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 56¢ $11 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 58¢ $11 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 60¢ $12 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $14 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 75¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 59¢ $17 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 54¢ $21 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $3 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $6 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 489 history records