Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd1c…cd4c crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$714 (-17%) realized −$714 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$597
7 days−$644
14 days−$677
30 days−$964
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$964
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -30.8% -37.4% 36% 36% -28.5%
≤30d 40 -34.5% -40.7% 35% 32% -31.4%
≤90d 40 -34.5% -40.7% 35% 32% -31.4%
all 40 -34.5% -40.7% 35% 32% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 32% -31.4%
10% -46.4% 32% -38.0%
15% -51.6% 30% -44.0%
20% -56.3% 30% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$91 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$714
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage29d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $430 +$486 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $519 −$519 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 25 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $148 −$50 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $207 +$166 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $207 +$193 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 25 $183 −$177 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 25 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $308 −$308 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$90 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$32 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$33 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 01 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $103 −$98 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 01 $99 +$89 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 01 $62 +$36 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 01 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 01 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 27 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 27 $38 −$37 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 27 $37 +$32 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 27 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $103 +$56 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 27 $25 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $63 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $305 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $519 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $207 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $52 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $123 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $96 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $372 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $183 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $308 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $16 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records