Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FD 0xfd1c…7f60 sports 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 57d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$965 (+10%) realized +$993 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate61%53W / 34L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$4
14 days+$235
30 days+$908
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$441
weather 32% +$602
other 9% +$171
politics 1% +$644
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.1% -6.7% 58% 58% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +147.2% +123.6% 63% 63% +19.9%
≤90d 87 +37.4% +24.3% 61% 60% -2.3%
all 87 +37.4% +24.3% 61% 60% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.3% 60% -2.3%
10% +12.4% 49% -11.6%
15% +1.5% 41% -20.2%
20% -8.4% 30% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$94 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$993
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses53 / 34
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage57d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $34 $6 −$28 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $400 +$62 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $213 +$87 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $255 +$45 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $258 −$13 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $35 +$22 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $277 −$274 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $96 −$96 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $105 +$137 +130%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 +$108 +257%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $19 +$81 +426%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $35 −$4 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$54 +117%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $22 +$671 +3052%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $44 −$19 -43%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $36 +$21 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14? May 14 $60 +$20 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? May 13 $9 −$9 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea May 12 $1,054 −$1,046 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 11? May 11 $240 +$40 +17%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 10 $183 −$183 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 10 $199 −$199 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $417 +$213 +51%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $101 −$101 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 10 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $119 −$117 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 10 $251 +$149 +59%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 10 $121 +$79 +65%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $4 +$11 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $85 +$15 +18%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $54 +$46 +85%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 09 $155 +$45 +29%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 09 $169 +$131 +78%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 09 $270 +$230 +85%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 09 $122 −$122 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 9? May 09 $75 +$25 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 9? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9? May 09 $45 +$50 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 8? May 08 $5 $0 +10%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $15 −$14 -97%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 08 $59 +$41 +70%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $101 +$53 +52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner May 07 $224 +$516 +231%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 06 $161 +$39 +24%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner May 06 $100 +$50 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $462 12m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $391 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 17¢ $12 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $30 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $89 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $46 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $64 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $300 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $66 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $44 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 400 history records