Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:29:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd1d…4b32 world 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%16W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$2
politics 19% −$1
other 14% +$2
sports 5% +$1
crypto 5% +$1
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 11 -0.7% -10.2% 27% 0% -10.4%
all 40 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses16 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage301d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 46¢ 47¢ $40 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $36 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $36 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $37 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $36 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $42 −$3 -7%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $8 +$1 +9%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $25 +$1 +3%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Oct 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 04 $9 $0 +3%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $7 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 28 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in August? Aug 28 $2 $0 +20%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 27 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin above $106K on August 27? Aug 27 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 26 $3 $0 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $40 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $4 32h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $36 39h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $36 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $15 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $21 44h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $4 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $37 28d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $19 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $18 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $18 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $19 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $36 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $37 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 89¢ $41 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 88¢ $41 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $6 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 95¢ $31 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $21 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 93¢ $15 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $39 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.42 · official $40.42 (match) · 127 history records