Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:33:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd1d…6f23 sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$13 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%43W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$43
other 15% +$8
crypto 3% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 52% -9.7%
≤30d 80 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 52% -9.7%
≤90d 80 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 52% -9.7%
all 80 -3.5% -12.7% 54% 52% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 52% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 41% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 34% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 25% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses43 / 37
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 84
History coverage6d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Group Stage Procyon Gaming 42¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cary: Jack Kennedy vs Kaichi Uchida Jun 30 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 30 $66 +$10 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $28 −$28 -99%
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $13 +$18 +134%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +52%
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $79 +$17 +21%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $62 +$23 +36%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $51 +$4 +7%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner Jun 29 $6 +$1 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am Jun 29 $30 +$11 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio Jun 29 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $15 +$4 +29%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $10 +$13 +124%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $11 +$9 +83%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $20 −$1 -5%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $47 +$18 +39%
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle - Map 2 Winner Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Duru Soke Jun 28 $15 +$6 +40%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel - Map 1 Winner Jun 28 $30 +$6 +21%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $4 +$9 +208%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $5 −$1 -10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$11 +110%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $3 +$7 +216%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan P Jun 27 $10 +$23 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cary: Jack Kennedy vs Kaichi Uchida BUY Jack Kennedy 88¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming (BO3) - CCT South Ameri BUY Procyon Gaming 42¢ $9 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL Procyon Gaming 100¢ $77 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Procyon Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY Procyon Gaming 86¢ $66 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $10 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $28 6h
Counter-Strike: Julie&cie vs eternal premium - Map 2 Winner BUY Julie&cie 42¢ $13 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 17h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner BUY summer bear 68¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 17h
Dota 2: Habibis vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner BUY summer bear 89¢ $10 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $95 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 82¢ $79 17h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 11¢ $6 18h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $85 18h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $32 19h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $30 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $55 19h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 93¢ $51 20h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 62¢ $10 21h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 19¢ $15 21h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 29¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champio BUY UNO MILLE 14¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner BUY ShindeN 79¢ $6 24h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am BUY Patins da Ferrari 72¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 84¢ $25 35h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 44¢ $10 37h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner SELL SAW 49¢ $0 37h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Subtop De France - Map 2 Winner BUY Subtop De France 38¢ $15 37h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs SAW - Map 1 Winner SELL SAW 49¢ $19 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.33 · official $11.33 (match) · 171 history records