Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd27…ca0a
weather · 149 markets active 2h ago
2.5score
+$1 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses78 / 52
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions19
Markets (closed)130 / 149
History coverage148d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 130 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$20
14 days+$22
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 99¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+610%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 86¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? No 88¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14? No 92¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 16? No 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$6 +538%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +221%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$3 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$8 +770%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% −$31
sports 4% +$23
crypto 2% −$4
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 91¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 41h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +40.4% +27.0% 59% 41% +16.5%
≤30d 64 +34.8% +22.0% 58% 42% +6.6%
≤90d 129 +18.2% +7.0% 60% 44% -9.8%
all 130 +18.1% +6.8% 60% 44% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 44% -9.8%
10% -3.4% 31% -18.4%
15% -12.7% 24% -26.3%
20% -21.3% 23% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.56 · official $16.54 (match) · 271 history records