Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd2a…a916 other 44 markets active 2d ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 27% −$1
tech 19% −$1
other 15% −$1
crypto 13% $0
politics 9% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 7% +$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -3.1% -12.4% 11% 6% -12.5%
≤30d 44 +2.2% -7.5% 20% 14% -10.7%
≤90d 44 +2.2% -7.5% 20% 14% -10.7%
all 44 +2.2% -7.5% 20% 14% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 14% -10.7%
10% -16.3% 11% -19.2%
15% -24.4% 9% -27.0%
20% -31.8% 9% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage14d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 +$1 +98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jun 16 $2 $0 -7%
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Jun 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -2%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 16 $1 $0 -9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 +$1 +91%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $1 +$1 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $4 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? SELL No 90¢ $2 2d
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2 2d
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $2 2d
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $2 2d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $3 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3 2d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $8 2d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 2d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 2d
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $2 2d
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of SELL Yes 90¢ $1 2d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $1 2d
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $1 2d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 2d
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? SELL Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $1 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 202 history records