Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd2e…4f3d other 57 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$185 (+24%) realized +$215 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$135
14 days+$132
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$66
sports 29% +$169
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +59.5% +44.3% 32% 30% +16.4%
≤30d 50 +52.7% +38.2% 32% 30% +14.3%
≤90d 50 +52.7% +38.2% 32% 30% +14.3%
all 50 +52.7% +38.2% 32% 30% +14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.2% 30% +14.3%
10% +25.0% 30% +3.4%
15% +12.9% 28% -6.6%
20% +1.8% 26% -15.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$7 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$215
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions7
Markets (closed)50 / 57
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Yes 12¢ 16¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$23 +227%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $37 −$16 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$13 -78%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -72%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$38 +186%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $10 +$65 +622%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 +$20 +160%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +303%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$42 +271%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $31 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$20 +382%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$8 +195%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $32 −$20 -62%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $15 +$2 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $4 −$3 -78%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$55 +1791%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $31 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 5h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 5h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $52 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $34 5h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $53 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 26h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 27h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $58 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 29h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 29h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 30h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.77 · official $164.77 (match) · 113 history records