Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd2f…37dd sports 544 markets active 2h ago coverage 291d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 291d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$60,264 (-50%) realized −$60,917 · open +$653
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%219W / 452L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$1,311est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$8,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50,540
7 days−$50,438
14 days−$49,633
30 days−$44,759
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,623
other 40% +$113
crypto 2% −$66
world 1% +$599
politics 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -30.9% -37.5% 15% 14% -85.4%
≤30d 373 -19.8% -27.5% 28% 27% -53.9%
≤90d 476 -13.8% -22.0% 30% 29% -44.4%
all 671 -12.4% -20.8% 33% 32% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 32% -39.2%
10% -28.3% 31% -45.0%
15% -35.3% 30% -50.3%
20% -41.6% 28% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$213 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

291d coverage
Net worth$8,151
Realized−$60,917
Unrealized+$653
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses219 / 452
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$1,311
Open positions10
Markets (closed)671 / 544
History coverage291d ⚠
Avg bet$220
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3,021 $3,221 +$200 (+7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,300 $2,650 +$350 (+15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1,430 $1,595 +$165 (+12%)
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Learner Tien 43¢ 42¢ $278 $275 −$3 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ 24¢ $215 $211 −$4 (-2%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $105 $108 +$2 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $125 $68 −$57 (-46%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+7%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 441 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Biden finish his term? Jun 17 $9,940 −$10,715 -108%
Terra Wortmann: Medvedev vs. Zverev Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will RB Salzburg vs. Real Madrid end in a draw? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-02-12? Jun 17 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5) Jun 17 $295 −$295 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Jun 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Will the match between Bayern Munich and Slovan Bratislava end in a dr Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-05-02? Jun 17 $95 −$95 -100%
NBA Finals: Thunder to win game 4 and the series? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pacers (-2.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sporting CP beat Bologna? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Suns vs. Bulls Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. Barriault Jun 17 $325 −$325 -100%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Jun 17 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Knicks vs. Pacers Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Inter Miami vs. Palmeiras: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 17 $432 −$432 -100%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jun 17 $198 −$699 -354%
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
UEFA Europa Conference League Final: Real Betis vs. Chelsea Jun 17 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Benfica beat Bayern Munich? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Jun 17 $577 −$577 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-2.5) Jun 17 $542 −$542 -100%
Will Feyenoord vs. Inter end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brighton win on 2025-05-25? Jun 17 $426 −$379 -89%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 17 $522 −$522 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-05-04? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs. Casper Ruud Jun 17 $366 −$366 -100%
Knicks vs. Celtics Jun 17 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Shakhtar Donetsk beat Borussia Dortmund? Jun 17 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Esperance Sportive beat Chelsea? Jun 17 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 17 $2,271 −$2,271 -100%
Esperance Sportive vs. Chelsea: 3+ Goals Scored? Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Pacers vs. Thunder Jun 17 $324 −$324 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-03-05? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
US Open: Ben Shelton vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 17 $557 −$557 -100%
Will RB Salzburg beat Al Hilal? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Barcelona beat Espanyol? Jun 17 $444 −$345 -78%
Will Anderlecht beat Hoffenheim? Jun 17 $234 −$234 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 17 $559 −$559 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Thunder Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Jun 17 $117 −$92 -78%
Will PSG beat Seattle Sounders? Jun 17 $91 −$91 -100%
PSG vs. Inter Miami: 4+ Goals Scored? Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Will Leicester vs. Southampton end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Juventus beat Wydad AC? Jun 17 $82 −$82 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Jun 17 $47 +$360 +764%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 43¢ $283 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 25¢ $220 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $40 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $12 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $75 11h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 100¢ $70 11h
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 52¢ $26 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $1 12h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $7 13h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $18 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $87 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $118 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $70 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $182 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $33 15h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 33¢ $34 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $121 16h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $23 37h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $39 38h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $21 39h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 67¢ $134 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 65¢ $129 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $73 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $71 40h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 81¢ $19 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 70¢ $11 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 70¢ $15 42h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 70¢ $22 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,150.70 · official $8,150.70 (match) · 3500 history records