Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd31…5993
crypto · 35 markets active 1h ago
4.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses14 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage90d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $3 +$6 +205%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 14 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 18 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 18 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 18 $14 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 18 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 18 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 18 $1 +$4 +391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 18 $1 +$4 +367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 18 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 18 $1 +$2 +196%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$1
other 6% −$5
sports 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 1h
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 10h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $5 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $2 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +38.9% +25.6% 67% 67% +3.3%
≤30d 3 +38.9% +25.6% 67% 67% +3.3%
≤90d 35 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 37% -9.4%
all 35 +7.9% -2.4% 40% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.4% 37% -9.4%
10% -11.7% 29% -18.1%
15% -20.2% 23% -26.0%
20% -28.1% 20% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 98 history records