Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:38:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd36…a832 weather 488 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$6,828 (-9%) realized −$6,649 · open −$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%190W / 293L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day45.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,763now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,570
7 days−$166
14 days+$582
30 days−$5,538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$6,887
sports 0% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.3% -5.6% 53% 53% -11.0%
≤30d 130 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 43% -20.5%
≤90d 483 -10.4% -19.0% 39% 36% -17.4%
all 483 -10.4% -19.0% 39% 36% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.0% 36% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 32% -25.3%
15% -33.8% 28% -32.5%
20% -40.3% 25% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$111 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2,763
Realized−$6,649
Unrealized−$179
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses190 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)483 / 488
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$162
Trades / day45.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 483 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $656 $1,073 +$417 (+64%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? Yes 48¢ 58¢ $623 $767 +$144 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $507 $523 +$16 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? Yes 46¢ 20¢ $553 $246 −$307 (-55%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 43¢ 11¢ $602 $154 −$449 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 20 $699 −$699 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $650 −$650 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? Jun 20 $1,089 −$1,053 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $810 +$831 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Jun 18 $483 +$410 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $445 −$445 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $494 +$650 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $452 +$485 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $536 +$552 +103%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $373 −$373 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 17 $399 +$334 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $409 +$434 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $445 −$445 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $511 +$453 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $480 +$435 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $522 +$419 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $523 −$523 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $542 −$542 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $441 −$441 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $486 −$486 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $199 +$179 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $434 +$342 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $487 +$355 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $403 +$383 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $402 −$402 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $434 +$461 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $376 +$319 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $506 −$506 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $407 −$407 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $353 +$352 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $441 −$441 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $328 −$328 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 11 $384 −$384 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $398 +$360 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $388 −$388 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $439 +$396 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $449 +$502 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $529 +$384 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $485 −$485 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $534 −$534 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $535 +$361 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 09 $468 +$373 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $469 +$520 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $398 −$398 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $447 −$447 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $490 +$441 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? Jun 08 $474 +$397 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $343 +$407 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $561 −$561 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 48¢ $479 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $91 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 46¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 22? BUY Yes 55¢ $519 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 21? BUY Yes 46¢ $568 21h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 55¢ $21 23h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $594 23h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? BUY Yes 61¢ $668 30h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 42h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 44h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? SELL Yes 6¢ $34 44h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 66¢ $46 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 66¢ $4 46h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 66¢ $34 46h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 48¢ $176 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 49¢ $176 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 51¢ $176 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $24 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 47h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 19? BUY Yes 54¢ $60 47h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 60¢ $48 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 54¢ $111 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,762.63 · official $2,762.72 (match) · 3500 history records