Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfd38…3724 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$72 (+13%) realized +$62 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$303now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$124
crypto 17% −$1
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.5% -11.7% 40% 40% +26.2%
≤30d 5 -2.5% -11.7% 40% 40% +26.2%
≤90d 5 -2.5% -11.7% 40% 40% +26.2%
all 5 -2.5% -11.7% 40% 40% +26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 40% +26.2%
10% -20.2% 40% +14.1%
15% -27.9% 40% +3.1%
20% -35.0% 40% -7.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$8 · ×8.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.7 per $1 lost it wins $5.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$303
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $98 $105 +$7 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 58¢ $98 $102 +$4 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $97 $96 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $50 −$16 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $100 +$69 +69%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -12%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$63 +63%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 29¢ $34 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $50 7h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 16¢ $18 8h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $100 16h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 67¢ $100 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $303.05 · official $303.05 (match) · 12 history records