Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

FD 0xfd3a…1a0c other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate41%9W / 13L

Drawdown37%max

Avg bet$13per market

Trades / day19.7pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-25.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-17.7%	-25.5%	41%	36%	+6.4%
≤30d	22	-17.7%	-25.5%	41%	36%	+6.4%
≤90d	22	-17.7%	-25.5%	41%	36%	+6.4%
all	22	-17.7%	-25.5%	41%	36%	+6.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.5%	36%	+6.4%
10%	-32.6%	32%	-3.8%
15%	-39.2%	32%	-13.1%
20%	-45.1%	27%	-21.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -44% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$6 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$5

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)41%

Wins / losses9 / 13

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$13

Trades / day19.7

Drawdown37%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?	Yes	22¢	22¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$10	−$1	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 27	$3	−$3	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 27	$8	−$8	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	Jun 27	$5	+$6	+112%
Norway to score first vs. France?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Jun 27	$2	−$2	-100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-100%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	Jun 27	$20	+$10	+48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$61	+$39	+64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$15	−$6	-37%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?	Jun 27	$20	+$11	+52%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 26	$15	−$15	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$20	+$12	+59%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	Jun 26	$30	+$22	+73%
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Jun 26	$9	+$25	+276%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan?	Jun 25	$10	−$5	-45%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Jun 25	$10	$0	+4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	Jun 25	$10	+$2	+18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 25	$11	−$11	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	37¢	$9	15m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	6¢	$1	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$2	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	30¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	BUY Down	45¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$5	1h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	SELL No	100¢	$30	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$100	1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	25¢	$10	2h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?	SELL Yes	100¢	$31	2h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup	BUY No	67¢	$20	5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	38¢	$15	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$61	6h
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay?	BUY Yes	65¢	$20	6h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL Norway	0¢	$0	6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	BUY Down	23¢	$5	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$2	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET	BUY Up	1¢	$5	7h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5	SELL Over	100¢	$32	8h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$52	8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	8h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	9h
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5	BUY Over	62¢	$20	9h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY Norway	55¢	$15	9h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	57¢	$30	10h
Norway to score first vs. France?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	10h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	BUY No	26¢	$9	27h
Sweden to score first vs. Japan?	SELL Yes	25¢	$6	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.76 · official $24.76 (match) · 52 history records