Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd3c…da9b crypto 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$915 (-3%) realized −$915 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate88%209W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$15
14 days−$1,451
30 days−$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,434
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -0.5% -10.0% 92% 25% -9.9%
≤30d 237 -2.8% -12.0% 88% 32% -13.4%
≤90d 237 -2.8% -12.0% 88% 32% -13.4%
all 237 -2.8% -12.0% 88% 32% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 32% -13.4%
10% -20.5% 7% -21.7%
15% -28.1% 0% -29.2%
20% -35.2% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$159 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$915
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses209 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage15d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $60 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $60 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $61 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $60 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$8 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $400 +$5 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $60 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $60 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $60 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $60 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $60 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $39 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $61 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $60 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $60 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $60 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $60 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $61 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $60 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $60 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $60 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $60 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $60 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $60 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 475 history records