Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfd3e…5a7a sports 930 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (212 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,050 (+12%) realized +$4,111 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%473W / 669L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day212.1pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$716now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$976
other 6% +$563
crypto 0% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (212 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 776 -30.1% -36.7% 36% 30% -15.7%
≤30d 1142 -20.1% -27.7% 41% 34% -13.2%
≤90d 1142 -20.1% -27.7% 41% 34% -13.2%
all 1142 -20.1% -27.7% 41% 34% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover212.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.7% 34% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -34.6% 27% -21.5%
15% -40.9% 22% -29.1%
20% -46.7% 17% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$716
Realized+$4,111
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses473 / 669
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions19
Markets (closed)1142 / 930
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day212.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 1142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti Sofia Rocchetti 78¢ 83¢ $201 $214 +$12 (+6%)
ITF Klosters: Niklas Waldner vs Louis Wessels Louis Wessels 89¢ 100¢ $111 $125 +$14 (+13%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ 100¢ $69 $74 +$4 (+6%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 54¢ 56¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+3%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc Saoirse Breen 93¢ 100¢ $52 $56 +$4 (+8%)
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea Paula Ormaechea 72¢ 42¢ $71 $41 −$30 (-42%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz Lotte Giants 50¢ 52¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina Daria Shubina 66¢ 87¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+31%)
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin Noa Vukadin 87¢ 86¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman Mihai Alexandru Coman 58¢ 94¢ $8 $13 +$5 (+61%)
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard Thijs Boogaard 73¢ 61¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
ITF Ystad: June Bjork vs Isabel Skoog Isabel Skoog 81¢ 66¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-19%)
ITF Kayseri: Ivan Marrero Curbelo vs Laurence Teunissen Ivan Marrero Curbelo 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
ITF Monastir: Photos Photiades vs Paul Inchauspe Paul Inchauspe 83¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli Elsa Bonelli 23¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+335%)
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major Adam Jilly 74¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 43¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
ITF Samobor: Antonio Voljavec vs Matic Dimic Antonio Voljavec 72¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 52¢ 70¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+36%)
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard Goncalo Marques 21¢ 39¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+86%)
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman Vito Dellelba 23¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-72%)
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli Jenny Duerst 73¢ 0¢ $61 $0 −$61 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 477 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klagenfurt: Pedro Sakamoto vs Dominik Recek Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tōkyō Verdy win on 2026-05-24? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Kayseri: Ksenia Smirnova vs Mariia Bergen Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-10? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -14897%
ITF Wuning: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yujia Huang Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Blast: Glamorgan vs Somerset Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga Jun 17 $5 −$7 -134%
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-30? Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: 1H Moneyline Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs YFP Gaming (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Vicenza: Mika Brunold vs Massimo Giunta Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 17 $44 −$45 -102%
Little Rock: Dane Sweeny vs Enzo Aguiard Jun 17 $0 $0 -500%
ITF Kayseri: Doga Turkmen vs Selina Atay Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
ITF Hurghada: Yassin Ahmed Wageh vs Markus Molder Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Daria Kuznetsova vs Anna Bazderova Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
T20 Blast: Warwickshire vs Somerset Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Kent Jun 17 $0 −$1 -118%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cusco FC vs. Independiente Medellín end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 17 $0 −$1 -377%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ITF Wichita: Reese Brantmeier vs Clervie Ngounoue Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 17 $1 −$2 -133%
Will FC Midtjylland vs. Brøndby IF end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 17 $2 −$2 -120%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage Jun 17 $3 −$3 -104%
Cervia: Stefan Dostanic vs Francesco Forti Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League M Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1582%
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 −$6 -128%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
ITF Bol: Enola Chiesa vs Vaishnavi Adkar Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
ITF Monastir: Ryuki Matsuda vs Amine Jamji Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-05-29? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 51¢ $23 0m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 51¢ $1 1m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 50¢ $2 1m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 55¢ $24 2m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 58¢ $7 2m
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 61¢ $3 3m
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Noa Vukadin 87¢ $12 4m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 68¢ $1 5m
ITF Samobor: Jakub Vrba vs Noa Vukadin BUY Noa Vukadin 87¢ $12 5m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 94¢ $68 21m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Saoirse Breen 95¢ $41 25m
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Saoirse Breen vs Lana Virc BUY Saoirse Breen 85¢ $11 26m
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman BUY Mihai Alexandru Coman 58¢ $8 27m
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea BUY Paula Ormaechea 72¢ $5 27m
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Thijs Boogaard 78¢ $10 31m
ITF Lourinha: Goncalo Marques vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Goncalo Marques 21¢ $1 31m
ITF Constanta: Vito Dell'elba vs Mihai Alexandru Coman BUY Vito Dellelba 23¢ $2 38m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ $5 43m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 23¢ $4 44m
ITF Samobor: Antonio Voljavec vs Matic Dimic BUY Antonio Voljavec 72¢ $4 46m
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea BUY Paula Ormaechea 72¢ $63 46m
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina BUY Daria Shubina 68¢ $9 51m
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 75¢ $6 53m
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 74¢ $64 57m
ITF Gyula: Adam Jilly vs Aron Janos Major BUY Adam Jilly 74¢ $4 58m
ITF Kayseri: Mariya Dobreva vs Daria Shubina BUY Daria Shubina 65¢ $9 58m
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Sofia Rocchetti 73¢ $63 1h
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli BUY Jenny Duerst 68¢ $3 1h
ITF Klosters: Jenny Duerst vs Elsa Bonelli BUY Elsa Bonelli 23¢ $1 1h
ITF San Gregorio: Kiara Nina Kucikova vs Paula Ormaechea BUY Paula Ormaechea 73¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $716.26 · official $704.64 · 3500 history records