Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:32:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd3f…239d crypto 128 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$251 (-4%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%54W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days+$143
14 days+$106
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$567
other 14% +$151
sports 3% +$59
world 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.3% -7.5% 56% 44% +6.3%
≤30d 23 -30.4% -37.1% 43% 35% -9.0%
≤90d 69 -20.9% -28.4% 48% 41% -9.5%
all 128 -28.9% -35.6% 42% 38% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 38% -15.3%
10% -41.8% 31% -23.4%
15% -47.4% 27% -30.8%
20% -52.6% 20% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses54 / 74
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage107d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (65 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $648 +$160 +25%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $55 +$32 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$25 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$12 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$11 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $68 −$65 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $122 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 05 $81 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $31 +$10 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 30 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 30 $16 −$5 -32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 21 $108 −$105 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 21 $52 +$30 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 21 $60 +$33 +56%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Norway be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 15 $155 +$54 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 15 $102 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 15 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 15 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 13 $130 +$131 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 13 $231 −$69 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 13 $102 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 13 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 13 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 13 $16 +$27 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 30 $52 +$34 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 30 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 30 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 30 $65 −$19 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 30 $42 −$20 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 30 $11 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 20 $57 −$55 -97%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Otto Virtanen vs Titouan Droguet Apr 20 $31 +$26 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 17 $44 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 17 $40 +$25 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 11 $50 −$48 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $341 43m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $287 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $287 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $126 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $126 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $86 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $86 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $55 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $54 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $49 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 349 history records