Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd41…8216 sports 218 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%24W / 193L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
other 23% −$5
politics 21% −$3
economics 10% −$1
world 7% +$2
crypto 6% −$1
culture 5% $0
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 217 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses24 / 193
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)217 / 218
History coverage173d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $29 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 03 $228 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $107 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 31 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 31 $36 $0 -0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $125 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 30 $25 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $130 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 28 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 28 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $79 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 28 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 28 $333 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $65 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 25 $133 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $130 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 23 $65 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 21 $123 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $64 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 20 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 97¢ $29 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 11d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 12d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $29 25d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $29 26d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 39d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 40d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 84d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 99¢ $32 85d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $31 85d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $30 85d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $30 85d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $32 85d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $32 85d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $26 85d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $26 85d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $27 85d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 86d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $23 86d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $24 86d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $26 86d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $26 86d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $35 86d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $35 87d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $33 87d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $33 87d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $31 87d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $31 87d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $27 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.59 · official $28.59 (match) · 869 history records