Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd43…cd41 sports 211 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,634 (-1%) realized −$2,701 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate75%156W / 53L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$1,062est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$185
7 days−$195
14 days−$195
30 days−$1,491
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$5,695
other 4% +$2,821
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -55.8% -60.1% 38% 25% -13.7%
≤30d 11 -43.3% -48.7% 45% 36% -25.0%
≤90d 121 -17.6% -25.4% 63% 56% -24.6%
all 209 -4.8% -13.9% 75% 59% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 59% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 44% -19.0%
15% -29.7% 19% -26.8%
20% -36.5% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$2,025) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$412 vs −$1,267 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$2,701
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses156 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1,062
Open positions2
Markets (closed)209 / 211
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $210 $250 +$40 (+19%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 64¢ $125 $152 +$27 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,001 +$299 +30%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,032 +$168 +16%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $576 −$576 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,404 +$99 +7%
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 25 $2,148 −$2,140 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? May 23 $500 +$179 +36%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? May 23 $1,893 +$665 +35%
Will Genoa CFC vs. AC Milan end in a draw? May 19 $1,720 +$949 +55%
Will Como 1907 vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? May 17 $500 +$118 +24%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC end in a draw? May 11 $500 +$221 +44%
Will Hamburger SV vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? May 11 $500 +$68 +14%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? May 11 $2,780 +$1,852 +67%
Will Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF end in a draw? May 10 $506 +$79 +16%
Will Burnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 10 $500 −$155 -31%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? May 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 10 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907 end in a draw? May 10 $752 +$130 +17%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $507 −$501 -99%
Will Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés end in a draw? May 09 $147 +$27 +18%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $506 −$500 -99%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 08 $500 +$185 +37%
Will Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? May 08 $1,000 +$229 +23%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a dra May 05 $500 +$269 +54%
Will AS Roma vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 05 $1,551 +$449 +29%
Will US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 05 $1,413 +$587 +42%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 03 $500 +$125 +25%
Will SC Freiburg vs. VfL Wolfsburg end in a draw? May 03 $500 −$23 -4%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan end in a draw? May 03 $1,520 +$480 +32%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 03 $500 +$156 +31%
Will AZ vs. FC Twente '65 end in a draw? May 03 $516 +$76 +15%
Will Lille OSC vs. Le Havre AC end in a draw? May 03 $501 −$501 -100%
Will Fortuna Sittard vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam end in a draw? May 03 $505 −$11 -2%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio end in a draw? May 03 $2,481 −$2,481 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? May 02 $501 +$131 +26%
Will OGC Nice vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw? May 02 $500 +$106 +21%
Will Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw? May 02 $2,990 −$2,989 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. PSV end in a draw? May 02 $595 +$220 +37%
Will FC Metz vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? May 02 $500 +$112 +22%
Will FC Groningen vs. SBV Excelsior end in a draw? May 02 $500 +$106 +21%
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Torino FC end in a draw? May 02 $1,400 +$600 +43%
Will Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw? May 02 $1,931 −$1,931 -100%
Will FC Utrecht vs. NAC Breda end in a draw? May 02 $500 +$112 +22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? May 02 $500 +$110 +22%
Will Valencia CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 02 $500 +$105 +21%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw? May 02 $500 +$53 +10%
Will FC Nantes vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw? May 02 $290 +$26 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $127 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $214 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $25 4h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 7h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 9h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $22 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $100 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $335 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $42 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $17 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $33 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $7 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $167 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $33 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $3 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $16 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $208 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY No 86¢ $1,032 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $576 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL No 84¢ $1,503 6d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $1,404 6d
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $6 25d
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $6 25d
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $17 25d
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $17 25d
Will Paderborn vs. Wolfsburg end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $17 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.88 · official $401.95 (match) · 2518 history records