Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd43…df4c sports 533 markets active 3h ago coverage 80d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 79d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,358 (-12%) realized −$1,358 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%286W / 412L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,488
7 days−$1,448
14 days−$1,453
30 days−$1,438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% +$567
sports 6% +$9
other 5% −$12
world 0% +$8
crypto 0% −$8
finance 0% +$8
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 332 -48.5% -53.4% 29% 29% -72.4%
≤30d 399 -38.6% -44.4% 34% 34% -64.9%
≤90d 698 -25.6% -32.7% 41% 40% -15.7%
all 698 -25.6% -32.7% 41% 40% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.7% 40% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -39.2% 38% -23.8%
15% -45.0% 34% -31.1%
20% -50.4% 27% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$1,358
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses286 / 412
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions11
Markets (closed)698 / 533
History coverage80d ⚠
Avg bet$22
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 698 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 92¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+67%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 68¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+45%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 72¢ 98¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+36%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 76¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+31%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? No 84¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 74¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 49¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 391 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Everton FC vs. Manchester United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Leeds United FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by Januar Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from February 20 to Fe Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-22? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-14? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on January 13? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-12? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump talk to Kevin Hassett in February? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-01-24? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-07? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Award Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $288 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $2 13h
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 13h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $2 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $2 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $2 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 13h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 13h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $2 13h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 76¢ $2 13h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $2 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $2 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2 13h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 17h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $2 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $2 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $2 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 38h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.00 · official $22.00 (match) · 3500 history records