Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FD 0xfd43…7d3d sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,494 (+13%) realized +$1,699 · open −$205
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%17W / 10L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$127
7 days+$443
14 days+$862
30 days+$1,555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% +$1,095
sports 19% −$106
other 14% +$371
world 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +32.1% +19.6% 58% 58% +4.0%
≤30d 27 +30.4% +18.0% 63% 63% +4.0%
≤90d 27 +30.4% +18.0% 63% 63% +4.0%
all 27 +30.4% +18.0% 63% 63% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.0% 63% +4.0%
10% +6.7% 56% -6.0%
15% -3.6% 48% -15.1%
20% -13.0% 33% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +70% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$104 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.5 per $1 lost it wins $2.5
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$717
Realized+$1,699
Unrealized−$205
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses17 / 10
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions9
Markets (closed)27 / 36
History coverage34d
Avg bet$316
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 54¢ $543 $428 −$115 (-21%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 54¢ 57¢ $108 $115 +$7 (+6%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 20¢ $165 $78 −$87 (-53%)
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) Belgium $10 $45 +$35 (+350%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 31¢ 34¢ $31 $34 +$2 (+8%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 21¢ $42 $6 −$36 (-86%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 29¢ 35¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Belgium $3 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $403 +$164 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $108 +$92 +85%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 +$64 +178%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 18 $15 +$85 +567%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $49 −$48 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 +$118 +144%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $70 +$30 +43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $370 +$201 +54%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $87 +$213 +245%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $98 +$102 +104%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $142 +$58 +41%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$96 +47%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $177 +$123 +70%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $516 −$516 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 09 $3,019 +$419 +14%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25? Jun 03 $950 +$216 +23%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25? Jun 03 $3,519 +$477 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 45m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 46m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 48m
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 48m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 1h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium $0 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $134 14h
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) BUY Belgium $2 19h
Spread: Belgium (-5.5) BUY Belgium $10 21h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $13 21h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $0 25h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 21¢ $29 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No $4 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No $14 28h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 28h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $96 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $123 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $86 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $36 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 15¢ $10 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 15¢ $4 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 15¢ $0 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 15¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $717.43 · official $755.33 · 173 history records