Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:30:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd47…805a world 417 markets active 1h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,301 (+2%) realized +$1,302 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate71%259W / 105L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$2,117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$83
14 days+$317
30 days+$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$230
politics 27% +$840
other 10% +$185
economics 0% +$3
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.4% +4.4% 100% 33% -2.9%
≤30d 112 +0.9% -8.7% 71% 13% -6.7%
≤90d 269 +0.8% -8.8% 69% 13% -8.1%
all 364 +1.4% -8.3% 71% 13% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 13% -8.0%
10% -17.0% 5% -16.8%
15% -25.1% 3% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$2,117
Realized+$1,302
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses259 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions53
Markets (closed)364 / 417
History coverage160d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $370 $386 +$16 (+4%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? No 89¢ 91¢ $150 $154 +$4 (+2%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by July 31? No 98¢ 99¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+0%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $128 $131 +$3 (+2%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 97¢ 100¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will DR Congo go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 95¢ 71¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+1%)
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 98¢ 96¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 80¢ 98¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? No 97¢ 92¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 96¢ 90¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 20 $22 +$1 +5%
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election? Jun 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 18 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Uzbekistan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Panama go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $250 +$15 +6%
Will Jordan go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Lionel Messi score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Trump praise Emmanuel Macron by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $50 +$43 +85%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 15 $485 +$3 +0%
Will Thibaut Courtois be in Belgium's Starting 11? Jun 15 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $385 +$6 +2%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $50 +$12 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $50 +$24 +47%
Will Curaçao go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Haiti go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $520 +$15 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $210 +$5 +3%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 +$4 +39%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? Jun 12 $210 +$1 +0%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $120 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "UFC" this week? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 12 $200 +$129 +64%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 12 $105 −$13 -12%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $1 $0 -40%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $40 +$2 +6%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $195 +$18 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $30 −$7 -23%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $300 $0 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $34 −$1 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 10 $90 +$9 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $230 +$5 +2%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 09 $25 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio attend the G7 Summit? Jun 09 $205 +$35 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $50 +$3 +5%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $325 +$32 +10%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $669 +$7 +1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 08 $33 −$1 -2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $25 −$8 -31%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 08 $60 −$5 -9%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -91%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $354 +$197 +56%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $60 1h
Will Trump praise Ursula von der Leyen by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 1h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 1h
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 26? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 2h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 4h
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 96¢ $30 4h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 4h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 4h
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $31 4h
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 85¢ $50 5h
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY No 92¢ $40 5h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 8h
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 BUY No 97¢ $33 8h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 10h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 11h
Will Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in June 2026? BUY No 88¢ $50 14h
Kash Patel out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $25 14h
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $180 10d
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 80¢ $30 10d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $211 10d
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $75 10d
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $71 10d
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
Will Ali Larijani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 98¢ $100 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,117.33 · official $2,117.35 (match) · 1785 history records