Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
FD 0xfd48…e970 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$349 (-1%) realized −$349 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%64W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$371per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% −$128
crypto 29% −$219
economics 4% $0
other 4% −$3
sports 3% −$4
finance 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 2 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 5 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 0% -9.8%
all 72 -2.9% -12.2% 89% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 0% -10.7%
10% -20.6% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$55 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$349
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses64 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage221d
Avg bet$371
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 76¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $91 −$5 -5%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 22 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $112 +$1 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 18 $236 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? Mar 23 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? Mar 22 $343 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 22 $401 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $396 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 18 $6,694 +$13 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 17? Mar 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $812 +$2 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 10 $808 −$4 -0%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $2,004 +$4 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 05 $1,189 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $332 −$162 -49%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $839 +$6 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $345 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 24 $171 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $170 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Feb 21 $506 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $171 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $502 +$2 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $165 +$1 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 14 $167 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 14, 2026? Feb 12 $166 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $328 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $502 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 09 $338 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $339 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $338 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 07 $251 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 3? Feb 04 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 20? Jan 21 $126 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 17? Jan 18 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $125 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 12? Jan 13 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $124 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $115 +$5 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 8? Jan 09 $117 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $118 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 01 $118 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 20 $655 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 12? Dec 14 $17 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 10? Dec 12 $17 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 9? Dec 09 $282 −$265 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $48 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $87 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $91 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $115 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $75 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $113 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $112 35d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $47 35d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $61 35d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $4 35d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 63d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 63d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 82d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 90d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $78 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? SELL No 100¢ $343 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $323 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $20 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $13 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $25 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $39 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $58 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $58 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $48 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $39 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $58 92d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $59 92d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 97¢ $63 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.69 · official $104.69 (match) · 351 history records