Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd4a…6950
crypto · 333 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$48 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$375 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$25
Realized−$375
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses168 / 163
Open positions2
Markets (closed)331 / 333
History coverage2d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day912.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 331 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$375
7 days−$375
14 days−$375
30 days−$375
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 47¢ 48¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 49¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+104%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $164 −$117 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$39 +372%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $60 −$15 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $189 +$81 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $188 −$12 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $63 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $62 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$26 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$12 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$2 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 331 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% -18.0%
≤30d 331 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% -18.0%
≤90d 331 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% -18.0%
all 331 -8.9% -17.6% 51% 44% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover912.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 44% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 33% -25.9%
15% -32.7% 25% -33.0%
20% -39.3% 15% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.49 · official $24.81 (match) · 1991 history records