Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfd4c…93ad crypto 47 markets active 5d ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12 (-5%) realized −$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%24W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$11
sports 27% −$10
other 19% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +21.5% +9.9% 50% 50% -17.6%
≤90d 20 +7.1% -3.1% 50% 50% -14.8%
all 46 -5.7% -14.7% 52% 48% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 48% -16.6%
10% -22.8% 39% -24.6%
15% -30.3% 33% -31.9%
20% -37.1% 26% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses24 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage118d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $4 +$3 +69%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 +$2 +84%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $8 $0 -3%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 26 $2 +$1 +91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $1 +$1 +88%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 25 $1 +$2 +213%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $3 +$4 +149%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 24 $21 −$2 -8%
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5) May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1 +$1 +116%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 13 $3 +$2 +92%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $17 +$5 +26%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Feb 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Feb 15 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 15 $7 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 15 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 15 $3 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Feb 15 $9 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 15 $3 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Feb 15 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Feb 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 14 $8 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 14 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 14 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Feb 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Feb 14 $13 +$3 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.02 (match) · 1329 history records