Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd4d…7bac crypto 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,454 (-65%) realized −$1,454 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -24.7% -31.9% 29% 29% -71.9%
≤30d 17 -24.7% -31.9% 29% 29% -71.9%
≤90d 17 -24.7% -31.9% 29% 29% -71.9%
all 17 -24.7% -31.9% 29% 29% -71.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.9% 29% -71.9%
10% ← realistic here -38.4% 29% -74.6%
15% -44.3% 29% -77.0%
20% -49.8% 29% -79.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -69% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +60% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$163 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,454
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $521 −$521 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $132 −$125 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $492 −$492 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $181 −$173 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $104 +$99 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$29 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$42 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $94 +$260 +275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $477 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $79 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $76 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $104 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $94 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $106 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records