Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:01:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd4e…1183 crypto 567 markets active 5d ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%324W / 243L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$33
14 days−$54
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -22.1% -29.5% 43% 43% -35.1%
≤30d 281 -3.0% -12.3% 55% 55% -12.4%
≤90d 567 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -11.3%
all 567 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 57% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 56% -19.8%
15% -26.4% 52% -27.6%
20% -33.7% 47% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses324 / 243
Open positions0
Markets (closed)567 / 567
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 567 Trades
no open positions (236 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$11 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 907 history records