Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:21:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd51…d282 crypto 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$820 (-26%) realized −$823 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%34W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$2
tech 26% −$827
crypto 23% +$2
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 33 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 33 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.2%
all 36 -2.5% -11.8% 94% 0% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 0% -33.7%
10% -20.2% 0% -40.1%
15% -27.9% 0% -45.9%
20% -35.0% 0% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$414 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$823
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses34 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)36 / 39
History coverage135d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 15? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 12? Jun 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? Jun 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? Jun 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 29? May 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? May 30 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 28? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on May 27? May 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 26? May 27 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 23? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 23? May 26 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $120 and $130 on February 2? Feb 07 $2 $0 +0%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $827 −$827 -100%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Feb 02 $1,557 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $14 22m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 23m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $33 2d
Will XRP dip to $0.90 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $13 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $13 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $32 9d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $12 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $32 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 99¢ $31 15d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $31 18d
Will XRP reach $1.40 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $11 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 19d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.01 · official $52.10 (match) · 74 history records