Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd52…aa25 sports 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$98 (+3%) realized +$110 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$78
other 7% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-35.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -28.4% -35.2% 40% 40% -2.5%
≤30d 10 -28.4% -35.2% 40% 40% -2.5%
≤90d 10 -28.4% -35.2% 40% 40% -2.5%
all 10 -28.4% -35.2% 40% 40% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.2% 40% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -41.4% 40% -11.8%
15% -47.0% 40% -20.4%
20% -52.2% 40% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 83% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$81 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,735
Realized+$110
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions9
Markets (closed)10 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ 64¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ 57¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 41¢ 44¢ $125 $133 +$8 (+6%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 56¢ 56¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 50¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 44¢ $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $125 $121 −$4 (-3%)
Dylan Cease: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Over 61¢ 59¢ $122 $118 −$4 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 22 $254 +$314 +124%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 +$60 +60%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $253 +$164 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $46 −$45 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$14 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 21 $253 −$250 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$35 +69%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dylan Cease: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 BUY Over 61¢ $123 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $127 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $127 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $253 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $253 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $127 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 64¢ $505 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $127 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 41¢ $127 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 53¢ $152 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $254 20h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 56¢ $46 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $102 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 38¢ $25 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 32¢ $102 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $15 24h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 57¢ $253 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 60¢ $253 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 94¢ $85 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 55¢ $51 27h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 58¢ $51 27h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2 BUY 33¢ $128 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,735.00 · official $1,885.00 · 26 history records