Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd53…76d6 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+14%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 62% 62% +2.2%
≤30d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 62% 62% +2.2%
≤90d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 62% 62% +2.2%
all 13 +13.1% +2.3% 62% 62% +2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 62% +2.2%
10% -7.5% 38% -7.6%
15% -16.4% 8% -16.6%
20% -24.6% 0% -24.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×6.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.08 per $1 lost it wins $10.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals Jun 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 +$2 +23%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 $0 -1%
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 $0 -1%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 −$1 -10%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 26 $10 +$1 +14%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 −$1 -5%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 $0 -3%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$2 +24%
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$3 +29%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals SELL No 75¢ $34 1h
Nicolas Jackson: 1+ goals BUY No 65¢ $30 4h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals SELL No 80¢ $10 18h
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals SELL No 83¢ $10 19h
Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals BUY No 83¢ $10 20h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals SELL No 81¢ $9 20h
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $10 20h
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 89¢ $10 21h
Gio Reyna: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $10 23h
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals BUY No 87¢ $10 23h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $10 24h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL No 64¢ $10 26h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 66¢ $10 27h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals SELL No 59¢ $10 27h
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $10 31h
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals BUY No 80¢ $10 45h
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals BUY No 77¢ $10 45h
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $10 45h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY No 84¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records