Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd54…597d other 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 386d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$342 (-9%) realized −$330 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate23%22W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$180
14 days−$163
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$75
other 34% −$278
world 15% +$76
crypto 4% −$111
sports 3% −$57
economics 2% −$5
tech 1% +$53
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -46.1% -51.3% 0% 0% -28.6%
≤30d 37 -28.4% -35.2% 11% 11% -16.2%
≤90d 39 -29.8% -36.5% 10% 10% -16.2%
all 95 -30.9% -37.5% 23% 15% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.5% 15% -18.0%
10% -43.5% 14% -25.9%
15% -48.9% 13% -33.0%
20% -53.9% 11% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 64% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$13 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

386d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$330
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses22 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions11
Markets (closed)95 / 106
History coverage386d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 1%+? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-51%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.5–0.6%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.8–0.9%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.9–1.0%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-85%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.6–0.7%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.7–0.8%? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-96%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 23 $27 −$2 -7%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $46 −$44 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 20 $48 −$2 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 $0 -7%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5 $0 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Jun 17 $614 −$34 -6%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$14 -66%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $30 −$6 -21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $223 +$187 +84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $55 −$44 -79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $60 −$2 -4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $56 −$53 -95%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 $0 -10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -7%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$25 +123%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $229 −$16 -7%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 04 $308 −$26 -8%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 02 $333 −$240 -72%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 28 $108 −$8 -7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $69 +$181 +263%
Will OpenAI file for an IPO by May 29, 2026? May 24 $41 +$53 +128%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 16 $2 $0 -11%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on February 14? Feb 14 $23 −$23 -99%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Feb 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 14 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 14 $10 +$17 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $125 −$22 -18%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $37 +$1 +4%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarch Feb 13 $1 −$1 -78%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $61 +$26 +42%
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Feb 13 $8 −$4 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 61¢ $25 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 25¢ $25 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 25¢ $27 9h
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $55 11h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $46 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $46 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 77¢ $48 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 32¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 13¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 39¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 33¢ $5 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $14 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 40¢ $41 4d
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $581 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $8 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 6¢ $7 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $21 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $22 5d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 44¢ $24 7d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 56¢ $30 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 62¢ $40 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 97¢ $410 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $223 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 15¢ $11 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 8d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 45¢ $55 8d
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $107 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $49 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.43 · official $78.43 (match) · 271 history records