Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:22:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd56…5ba9 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$132 (+0%) realized +$132 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 127L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$28
politics 41% −$27
sports 5% +$183
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 130 +5.2% -4.8% 8% 7% -9.4%
all 144 +6.8% -3.4% 12% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 8% -9.3%
10% -12.6% 8% -18.0%
15% -21.0% 5% -25.9%
20% -28.8% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×17.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)144 / 144
History coverage116d
Avg bet$365
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 144 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $34 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $367 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $428 $0 -0%
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $814 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 23 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $289 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $388 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $293 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $600 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $337 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $304 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $423 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $841 −$2 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $608 −$1 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $326 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $728 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $312 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $389 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $304 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $655 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $303 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $409 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $314 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $34 4h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 7h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 9h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $44 26h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $44 37h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $42 7d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 10d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $65 10d
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $65 10d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $58 10d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $58 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $40 13d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 15d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 15d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 22d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 22d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $403 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $403 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $417 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $417 28d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $399 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $400 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 405 history records