Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd58…0698 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$18 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%30W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days+$12
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$34
other 45% +$46
crypto 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +16.4% +5.3% 52% 48% -8.1%
≤30d 58 +14.8% +3.9% 52% 48% -9.1%
≤90d 58 +14.8% +3.9% 52% 48% -9.1%
all 58 +14.8% +3.9% 52% 48% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 48% -9.1%
10% -6.1% 45% -17.8%
15% -15.1% 43% -25.8%
20% -23.5% 33% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses30 / 28
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)58 / 61
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Nemesis 84¢ 68¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 31¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 30¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $60 −$60 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +31%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$15 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $15 +$10 +65%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout Jun 17 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 $0 -2%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +105%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $30 +$20 +65%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$20 +982%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$7 +129%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $7 +$6 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$7 +44%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $12 +$14 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 84¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $4 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 65¢ $10 19h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 84¢ $40 21h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 91¢ $20 25h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 25h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 25h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $30 27h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 27h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 31h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 36h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 36h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 60¢ $15 46h
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Sout BUY Ivory 93¢ $100 46h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 58¢ $20 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 31¢ $10 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.36 · official $52.36 (match) · 99 history records