Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:46:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd5c…807f crypto 1450 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$234 (-3%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate83%1201W / 249L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$48
14 days+$37
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$294
sports 5% −$35
world 0% +$1
weather 0% −$2
other 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 512 +1.7% -8.0% 95% 24% -7.9%
≤30d 1260 -2.5% -11.8% 88% 22% -11.8%
≤90d 1450 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 24% -13.0%
all 1450 -3.2% -12.4% 83% 24% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 24% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 11% -21.3%
15% -28.4% 6% -28.9%
20% -35.5% 4% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses1201 / 249
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1450 / 1450
History coverage69d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1450 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $7 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.75 · official $5.75 (match) · 3265 history records