Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd5c…2bd8
other · 149 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$67 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$52
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses18 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage95d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 148 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$13
14 days−$22
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 93¢ 93¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $102 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $284 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $229 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $99 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 10 $112 −$2 -2%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $46 −$2 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $286 −$1 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $56 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 05 $56 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 05 $51 $0 -1%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $213 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $52 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $48 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $141 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $51 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $101 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $159 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $562 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $465 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $247 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 28 $58 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $60 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $194 −$2 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu May 25 $29 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 25 $57 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 25 $159 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $54 $0 -1%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $110 −$2 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $104 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 23 $50 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $49 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 28% −$20
other 25% −$22
sports 21% −$12
crypto 7% $0
economics 7% −$3
world 4% −$3
culture 4% −$4
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $53 49m
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 1h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 7h
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $49 7h
Will Turkiye reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 96¢ $50 14h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $63 14h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $64 20h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $44 21h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $44 26h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 26h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $61 31h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $48 32h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $48 40h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $64 40h
Will Bruno Fernandes win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $65 46h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $42 47h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 2d
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $52 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $53 3d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $52 3d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $4 3d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $44 3d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $41 3d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 71 -0.6% -10.0% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 146 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 148 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.35 · official $52.35 (match) · 642 history records