Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd5d…fbb3 other 527 markets active 2h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,780 (-9%) realized −$1,780 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%304W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days−$292
14 days−$152
30 days−$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$432
sports 46% −$1,256
world 1% −$137
crypto 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -26.0% -33.1% 54% 50% -28.1%
≤30d 78 -10.4% -19.0% 60% 59% -17.9%
≤90d 317 -40.0% -45.7% 38% 38% -43.8%
all 522 -6.9% -15.8% 58% 58% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 58% -17.6%
10% -23.8% 53% -25.5%
15% -31.2% 34% -32.7%
20% -37.9% 21% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$36 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$186
Realized−$1,780
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses304 / 218
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions5
Markets (closed)522 / 527
History coverage364d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 522 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 78¢ 80¢ $112 $114 +$2 (+2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $42 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 40¢ $24 $22 −$1 (-6%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 41¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $61 +$8 +13%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$6 +29%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $145 +$33 +23%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $72 +$36 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $32 +$26 +83%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 +$4 +38%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $40 +$14 +34%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $21 +$21 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $81 +$23 +29%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $63 +$20 +32%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $74 −$73 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $28 −$28 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $183 +$47 +26%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $22 −$21 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $67 +$9 +13%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $132 −$131 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$22 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $47 +$37 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $33 +$11 +32%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 +$46 +138%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $16 +$5 +32%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $35 +$48 +138%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $57 −$56 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $59 −$59 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $51 +$14 +28%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $51 +$14 +27%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $67 +$83 +124%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Thailand win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $12 +$3 +29%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $69 +$27 +39%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $32 +$5 +14%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $12 +$2 +18%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $8 +$5 +64%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 08 $38 +$12 +32%
Will Greece vs. Italy end in a draw? Jun 07 $35 +$12 +36%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $8 +$10 +117%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $42 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $6 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $2 7h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $17 8h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $1 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $4 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $3 14h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $113 15h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $61 16h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 81¢ $138 29h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $21 29h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $11 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $8 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $8 37h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $3 37h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $7 38h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 49¢ $10 44h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $8 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $9 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $24 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $35 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $21 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $6 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 73¢ $49 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $25 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $36 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $31 3d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.84 · official $185.84 (match) · 1209 history records