Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfd63…42d8 other 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,644 (-1%) realized −$1,647 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate17%27W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,596per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$23
14 days−$96
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$71
politics 32% −$99
sports 14% −$1,498
world 2% −$3
economics 1% −$2
culture 1% −$5
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 58 +1.5% -8.1% 9% 9% -9.6%
≤90d 132 -7.0% -15.8% 7% 5% -10.5%
all 161 +2.1% -7.7% 17% 12% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 12% -10.1%
10% -16.5% 12% -18.7%
15% -24.6% 11% -26.6%
20% -32.0% 11% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,871) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$24 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized−$1,647
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses27 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 163
History coverage125d
Avg bet$1,596
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $404 $405 +$2 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $174 $175 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $5,046 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,871 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,285 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,293 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,594 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,580 −$3 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,550 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,975 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,602 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $625 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $71 +$34 +48%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $618 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 05 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $8,607 −$9 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,852 −$2 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $71 +$66 +93%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,355 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $1,228 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 02 $68 +$59 +86%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,812 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4,017 −$4 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 30 $726 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $477 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $419 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,000 −$5 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco Giants May 25 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 24 $71 +$54 +76%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $617 −$1 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $491 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $492 3h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $620 4h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $621 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $540 22h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $541 25h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $561 25h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $561 28h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $534 30h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $534 32h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $608 47h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $609 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $484 2d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $485 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $426 2d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $427 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $593 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $594 3d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $544 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $545 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $507 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $508 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $507 6d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $508 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $435 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $436 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $455 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $455 6d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $586 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $587 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.51 · official $580.51 (match) · 605 history records