Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:09:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd65…3202
crypto · 788 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$230 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$229 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$229
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses572 / 215
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)787 / 788
History coverage58d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 787 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$333
7 days−$266
14 days−$274
30 days−$275
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 83¢ 34¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$120
sports 11% −$104
world 5% +$28
weather 4% −$14
other 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 713 -1.6% -11.0% 75% 61% -19.6%
≤30d 751 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 60% -19.3%
≤90d 787 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 59% -16.2%
all 787 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 59% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 59% -16.2%
10% -20.2% 38% -24.2%
15% -27.9% 13% -31.6%
20% -35.0% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.42 · official $0.60 (match) · 1644 history records