Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FD 0xfd66…f510 sports 73 markets active 4d ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$843 (+2%) realized +$843 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate45%33W / 40L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$690per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$764est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,972
14 days−$3,387
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 50% -24.1%
≤30d 68 -13.9% -22.1% 46% 34% -9.3%
≤90d 73 -14.9% -23.0% 45% 34% -8.3%
all 73 -14.9% -23.0% 45% 34% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.0% 34% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 30% -17.1%
15% -37.1% 29% -25.1%
20% -43.2% 21% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,020) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$568 vs −$453 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$843
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses33 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$764
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage30d
Avg bet$690
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,890 −$1,879 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,233 −$1,209 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $382 −$380 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $580 +$256 +44%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $606 +$682 +112%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,705 +$617 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,935 −$1,920 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $680 −$680 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,271 +$529 +42%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,580 +$2,420 +153%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 12 $414 −$408 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $185 +$315 +170%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,300 −$1,290 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,546 −$1,513 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $255 +$11 +4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1,916 +$1,584 +83%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $218 −$213 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $43 −$41 -97%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $290 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $364 −$344 -94%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Jun 10 $3 −$1 -27%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $2,630 +$1,370 +52%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $254 +$53 +21%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $33 +$3 +8%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $432 −$432 -100%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $793 −$68 -8%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team - Game 2 Winn Jun 09 $95 −$88 -94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $396 +$804 +203%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1,020 +$980 +96%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $640 −$640 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $567 −$560 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $620 −$434 -70%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $656 +$844 +129%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $285 −$285 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $693 −$13 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $321 −$320 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Betclic Apogee Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $112 −$112 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $36 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $1,214 +$786 +65%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $530 +$103 +20%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $250 +$100 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $7 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $2,978 +$72 +2%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $182 +$284 +156%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoffs Jun 03 $95 −$95 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $44 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $4 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $9 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $5 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $90 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $30 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $40 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $1,113 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $556 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 43¢ $3 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 35¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 29¢ $55 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $168 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $337 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $337 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 33¢ $337 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $80 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $28 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $148 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $6 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $72 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs SELL XLG Gaming 43¢ $836 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $146 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $434 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $167 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $11 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 43¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 482 history records