Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd66…fb6d
sports · 427 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$36,877 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29,947 · open −$7,978
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11,006
Realized−$29,947
Unrealized−$7,978
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses126 / 367
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$2,856
Open positions29
Markets (closed)493 / 427
History coverage31d
Avg bet$594
Trades / day110.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 29 History 493 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32,662
7 days−$35,265
14 days−$41,389
30 days−$27,555
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4,250 $4,225 −$25 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 4¢ $6,800 $1,800 −$5,000 (-74%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 22¢ 16¢ $2,200 $1,650 −$550 (-25%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $3,009 $1,190 −$1,819 (-60%)
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 16¢ $560 $542 −$18 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 71¢ 70¢ $355 $352 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 12¢ $243 $250 +$7 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $150 $204 +$54 (+36%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 9¢ 8¢ $200 $192 −$8 (-4%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $150 $142 −$8 (-5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $195 $133 −$62 (-32%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $129 $126 −$3 (-2%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 18¢ 18¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-3%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $46 $23 −$23 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $35 $17 −$17 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $32 $16 −$16 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $41 $15 −$26 (-63%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $321 $4 −$317 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $4 −$46 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
CS Independiente Rivadavia vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Silkeborg IF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $910 −$910 -100%
Viborg FF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $225 −$225 -100%
New York City FC vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3,198 −$3,198 -100%
VfL Bochum vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $710 −$710 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $165 −$165 -100%
Al Kholood Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $665 −$654 -98%
Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Smouha SC vs. Zamalek SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
CA Platense vs. CA Peñarol: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $135 −$135 -100%
Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Qadisiyah Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $605 −$605 -100%
Atlanta United FC vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,485 −$1,485 -100%
El Mokawloon El Arab SC vs. El Gouna SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Al Khaleej Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,296 −$1,296 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Hull City AFC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $734 −$734 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $410 −$410 -100%
El Gouna SC vs. Kahrabaa Ismailia FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $570 −$570 -100%
Al Taawoun Saudi Club vs. Al Ahli Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $529 −$511 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $202 −$202 -100%
Athletic Club vs. Valencia CF: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,420 −$1,420 -100%
1. FC Nürnberg vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $247 −$150 -61%
Real Betis Balompié vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Independiente Santa Fe vs. SC Corinthians Paulista: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $175 −$175 -100%
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,110 −$1,110 -100%
RCA Zemamra vs. Olympic Dcheira: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $296 −$296 -100%
Kashiwa Reysol vs. Kawasaki Frontale: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $235 −$235 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Diego FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
AS Monaco FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Hertha BSC vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $516 −$516 -100%
NEOM SC vs. Al Shabab Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $533 −$490 -92%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Deportivo La Guaira FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs. Fredrikstad FK: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $480 −$480 -100%
Viborg FF vs. Sønderjyske Fodbold: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,092 −$1,092 -100%
Le Havre AC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $196 −$196 -100%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $155 −$155 -100%
Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $217 −$217 -100%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,054 −$1,054 -100%
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
SC Preußen Münster vs. SV Darmstadt 98: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Sevilla FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 53% −$20,509
world 32% +$35,634
other 11% −$8,375
crypto 2% −$5,374
tech 0% −$1,092
politics 0% −$978
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 9¢ $42 14m
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 18¢ $92 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $358 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $574 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 2h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 13¢ $34 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 5¢ $7 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? SELL No 2¢ $105 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $21 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $46 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $130 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $23 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? SELL No 6¢ $34 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $385 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 177 -49.8% -54.6% 16% 15% -39.6%
≤30d 486 -21.8% -29.3% 26% 25% -18.7%
≤90d 493 -21.6% -29.1% 26% 25% -19.4%
all 493 -21.6% -29.1% 26% 25% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover110.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.1% 25% -19.4%
10% -35.8% 25% -27.1%
15% ← realistic here -42.0% 24% -34.1%
20% -47.7% 22% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,005.78 · official $11,005.83 (match) · 3500 history records