Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd68…5d80 tech 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+3%) realized +$7 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate82%9W / 2L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% +$1
tech 27% +$7
other 15% −$3
crypto 14% −$1
weather 11% $0
finance 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.5% +0.9% 100% 100% +0.9%
≤30d 3 +5.4% -4.6% 100% 33% -3.3%
≤90d 11 -0.3% -9.8% 82% 27% -6.1%
all 11 -0.3% -9.8% 82% 27% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 27% -6.1%
10% -18.4% 18% -15.1%
15% -26.3% 9% -23.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.13 per $1 lost it wins $2.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses9 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage96d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $48 $47 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 26 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 07 $21 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 18? Jun 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 17 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 14 $6 +$2 +39%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 22 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 23? Apr 22 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 22 $4 $0 +5%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $4 +$1 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.48 · official $47.48 (match) · 23 history records