Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd69…a2e1 politics 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$326,934 (+1441%) realized +$324,146 · open +$2,788
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +87% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%26W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,891per market
Trades / day113.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$10,942now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 30d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$7,898
other 20% +$2,646
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+69.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 117 +87.4% +69.5% 22% 21% -58.5%
≤30d 117 +87.4% +69.5% 22% 21% -58.5%
≤90d 117 +87.4% +69.5% 22% 21% -58.5%
all 117 +87.4% +69.5% 22% 21% -58.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.5% 21% -58.5%
10% ← realistic here +53.3% 21% -62.5%
15% +38.5% 20% -66.1%
20% +24.9% 19% -69.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -110% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +87% · $-wt -110% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late +257% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$295 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$10,942
Realized+$324,146
Unrealized+$2,788
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses26 / 91
Open positions70
Markets (closed)117 / 12
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$1,891
Trades / day113.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1,052 $2,840 +$1,788 (+170%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 62¢ 62¢ $1,505 $1,495 −$10 (-1%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $128 $214 +$86 (+67%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $160 $212 +$52 (+32%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $152 $205 +$53 (+35%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $121 $172 +$51 (+42%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $134 $166 +$32 (+24%)
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $116 $165 +$49 (+43%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $113 $165 +$52 (+46%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $116 $165 +$49 (+43%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $113 $153 +$40 (+35%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $131 $152 +$21 (+16%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $111 $143 +$32 (+29%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $111 $143 +$32 (+29%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $112 $143 +$31 (+28%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $111 $143 +$32 (+29%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $111 $143 +$32 (+29%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $137 $143 +$6 (+4%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $100 $142 +$43 (+43%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $127 $140 +$13 (+10%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $145 $121 −$24 (-17%)
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $85 $120 +$36 (+42%)
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $94 $120 +$27 (+29%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $125 $120 −$5 (-4%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $86 $115 +$30 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 114 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $0 +$399 +8147249%
Will Etuate Lavulavu be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the ele Jun 25 $0 −$35 -12799%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will PSV Eindhoven finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Egypt win Intervision 2025? Jun 25 $0 −$1 -1157%
Will Tottenham finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier Leag Jun 25 $2 +$7 +357%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $17 −$14 -84%
Will Real Madrid finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $10 −$29 -297%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $13 +$6 +43%
Will Trump announce Rick Rieder as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Monaco finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Jun 25 $0 +$36 +2975550%
Will Juventus finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $42 −$41 -96%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cuba win Intervision 2025? Jun 25 $28 −$28 -99%
Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jun 25 $148 −$148 -100%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Feyenoord win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mayling Armijo win the 2025 Albuquerque mayoral election? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Borussia Dortmund finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $16 −$7 -40%
Will Inter Milan finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $10 +$43 +411%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $18 −$37 -212%
Will Marseille finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $17 −$15 -87%
Will Our Party win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary el Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Celtic win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win Intervision 2025? Jun 25 $4 −$3 -88%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $13 +$4 +27%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $7 +$20 +308%
Will Sturm Graz win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Harold Mayne-Nicholls win the Chilean presidential election? Jun 25 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? Jun 25 $3,245 −$15,331 -472%
Will LaVerne Gore win the 2025 Cleveland mayoral election? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $5 +$85 +1570%
Will Sharon Horgan win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Dram Jun 25 $38 −$54 -143%
Will Karthikeyan Murali win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fenerbahce win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bob Geldof win the Irish Presidential Election? Jun 25 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Vidit Gujrathi win the 2025 Quantbox Chennai Grand Masters? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times August 1–August 8? Jun 25 $0 +$1 +208%
Will Qarabağ finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $5 −$6 -120%
Will Adam Scott win the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Ser Jun 25 $0 −$163 -101400%
Will Sporting CP finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $13 −$15 -113%
Will Elon tweet less than 255 times August 1–August 8? Jun 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $13 −$5 -37%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bodø/Glimt finish first in UCL league phase? Jun 25 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 16m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 37m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 42m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,941.78 · official $10,941.64 (match) · 3500 history records